Boom or Bust: Looking at the Sports Card Market For the Active GOATs

Sports fans are currently able to watch and collect several players who may finish their careers as the greatest ever in their respective sport.

While it’s easy for each generation of hobbyists to envy previous eras when it comes to the greatest athletes of all time, the current lineup of stars is something truly special that should be appreciated.

Featuring legends like Alexander Ovechkin, LeBron James, Patrick Mahomes and Mike Trout, fans currently have a chance to watch and collect stars that are legitimately among the GOATs of their respective sports.

Here’s a look at the card markets for some of this generation’s GOATs and where collectors might be able to add some key cards.

Football: Patrick Mahomes

Fresh off of his third Super Bowl victory in just five years, Mahomes has gained traction as a “GOAT” as quickly as any other name in any major sport. If you remove his 2017 rookie season where he played just one game and average his statistics over the last six seasons, you’ll get yearly numbers of nearly 4,700 passing yards and 36 TDs.

At this rate, it would take Mahomes just 12 more seasons to pass Tom Brady’s all-time passing touchdown record and 13 seasons to pass Brady's passing yards record. 

Mahomes’ graded rookie cards have totaled nearly 12,000 transactions over the last 365 days, according to Market Movers, which is good for ninth among football players. Brady sits right behind Mahomes in the 10th spot, serving as an indicator that Mahomes could remain relevant in the sports card market for a long time.

Source: Market Movers

Despite the success, Mahomes' key cards are down 11% collectively over the last 365 days, according to the Market Movers' Patrick Mahomes Index.

Cards like the 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 and 2017 Donruss Base PSA 10 are among the most popular and achievable rookies for a relatively expensive player.

Basketball: LeBron James

Of course there will always be debate around who is truly the greatest to ever do it — James, Michael Jordan and various others. But there’s no denying James stands as one of the best to ever play. 

Now in his 21st season, James has reached the NBA Finals an astounding 10 times while claiming the title as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. 

Despite taking a 25% hit in pricing over the last 365 days, according to the Market Movers LeBron James Index, his graded rookies still greatly impact the basketball market. With over 11,000 sales coming from 1,100 different cards over the last year, James sits at No. 5 in terms of sales volume among basketball players.

From a volume perspective, his 2003 Topps Base PSA 10 and 2003 Topps Chrome Base PSA 10 are among his best sellers with nearly 500 trades over the last year accounting for over $1.6 million in total sales.

Source: Market Movers

Baseball: Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani

Trout is often labeled as the best player of the last decade while Ohtani has stunned fans with his unbelievable two-way talent since 2018. Despite an injury and another disappointing season for the Angels, Ohtani still managed to dominate the secondary baseball card market in terms of transactions.

Market Movers tracked nearly 47,000 transactions for Ohtani over the last 365 days — good for 30,000 more than the next closest baseball player. Trout sits at a respectable 16th place with just over 4,000 transactions.

The top sales over the last year for graded rookie cards serves as a testament to what collectors can expect when GOATs retire, with both Derek Jeter and Ken Griffey Jr. sitting in the top seven in total sales.

Source: Market Movers

Ohtani’s top PSA 10s from a sales perspective are his 2018 Topps Base (Pitching) and 2018 Topps Update Base. Those two cards have combined for over 4,500 transactions and over $750,000 in sales over the last year.

For Trout, his 2011 Topps Update PSA 10 is his most popular target for collectors over the last 365 days.

Hockey: Alexander Ovechkin

Ovechkin, who is nearing the all-time NHL goal record, trails Wayne Gretzky by just 58. With nearly 1,400 games played, an outstanding list of accolades and a massive following across the sport, Ovechkin continues to build his case for being in the conversation for hockey’s greatest.

He remains popular among collectors as well, sitting third in total transactions for graded rookies over the last 365 days. Ironically enough, Gretzky sits at No. 4, selling nearly an identical amount of singles during that period.

Looking at Ovechkin’s top selling PSA 10s, his 2005 Upper Deck examples hold the top two spots over the last 365 days, though they are both down significantly in price percentage.

Source: Market Movers

Soccer: Lionel Messi

Messi sits with one of the best arguments for GOAT status on this list, holding a multitude of impressive records such as the most goals for one club (672) and the most La Liga goals (474). His card market has remained popular after joining Inter Miami in 2023.

Messi also sits in fourth place for the most graded soccer rookie sales over the last 365 days, trailing just Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Halaand.

He is also the only GOAT here that doesn’t have a PSA 10 market heavily dominated by rookie cards. Messi’s 2022 Panini Instant World Cup Base has far outsold any other card over the last 365 days.

Source: Market Movers

Key takeaways:

Any time we do research around collectibles, the purpose is to establish clear takeaways that we can use as guidelines moving forward. Using this data, there are two key points to consider.

First, there are several similarities between the GOAT card markets for the major sports. For example, many of the top players that have retired over the last 25 years have maintained strong card markets. This gives us confidence that the current stars will maintain their collectibility even after retirement.

Second, you'll also find similarities between the popular cards for each of our current stars (outside of Lionel Messi) — base rookie cards are among the most popular. This tells hobbyists that, despite low-numbered or ultra-rare cards being more expensive, there’s also a certain value for liquidity that shouldn't be dismissed.