Can Recent Top NFL Picks See Their Sports Card Markets Recover?

Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff have recently shown that top picks can regain some former hobby glory.

One of the main factors that drives interest in annual sports card releases is the rookie class for each sport. As much as card manufacturers try to build hype in other ways, collectors can all agree that when a release has a strong rookie class, pricing and perceived long-term value is higher than when there is a weak class.

But the irony is that nobody really knows how strong each rookie class truly is when the wax and singles hit the market. Nobody actually has Bif’s Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future 2 — the proverbial “crystal ball.”

We don’t have to look back far to see that even a recent class like 2021, which featured QBs drafted with the top three picks, has already fallen off in a major way.

Once considered top prospects, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones all have uncertain futures. As much as we all like to think we can predict the future, it’s almost impossible with QBs.

Recent NBA drafts have also had a bit of a No. 2 overall pick “curse,” while picks like Jabari Parker in 2014, Lonzo Ball in 2017, Marvin Bagley III in 2018 and James Wiseman in 2020 all struggled to start their careers.

A hobby darling like Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, has totally fallen out of grace. In hockey, a once can’t-miss stud like No. 2 pick Quinton Byfield has disappointed thus far too.

But can these key players bounce back?

Mac Jones saw his 2021 Donruss Base PSA 10 fall from $2,500 in 2021 to $12 in 2024. Trey Lance’s 2021 Prizm Silver PSA 10 sold for $1,500 in 2022 but is trending closer to $70 today.

Zach Wilson’s 2021 Prizm Silver PSA 10 has also dipped from $660 to $60 over the same period as Lance.

While it may seem like an insurmountable feat, the reality is that sports card collectors will look to the market of guys like Baker Mayfield, the top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, to determine whether or not players like Jones, Lance or Wilson have anything left.

Mayfield’s 2018 Optic Holo PSA 10 was selling consistently for between $600 and $700 in September 2021 when there were high expectations for him as the starting QB for the Browns. That card fell below $40 in November 2022 when he was struggling to stay in the league.

Market Movers

When news broke that he’d lead the Buccaneers offense this offseason, the card jumped back up to a much more respectable $130.

Even former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff has resurrected his career and earned hobby respect by leading the Lions to an NFC North title.

After a slow rookie season, Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl in 2019 before falling out of favor with coach Sean McVay. Included in the trade to land Matthew Stafford in 2021, Goff was quickly labeled a bust when he arrived in Detroit.

After selling multiple times for $406 in 2020, his 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 dipped all the way down to $34 during his first season in Detroit.

Market Movers

Goff’s solid play this season has helped that card bounce back while consistently selling for between $200 and $230 throughout 2023.

This of course isn’t to say that Wilson, Lance and Jones will bounce back, but there’s still hope if they continue to develop and get the opportunity to earn a starting role somewhere. Mayfield and Goff have proven that this year even if their card markets haven’t completely bounced back to previous highs.

Afterall, the hobby even responds to guys like Jake Browning, Tommy Devito, Mike White and Cooper Rush. Why would it not respond to former top-15 picks?

While we never really know what a rookie class looks like until their careers start to take shape, we also know that everybody loves a good comeback story.